For now, expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 are relatively limited. This may limit the potential for lower mortgage rates.

As mentioned, mortgage rates haven't fallen in line with the Fed's rate cuts because they depend on factors beyond the agency's benchmark rate, such as the economy and 10-year Treasury bond yields. For example, when the 10-year treasury rate goes up, mortgage rates tend to follow, and vice-versa.

These are today's mortgage and refinance rates. Mortgage rates have increased this month, and it's unclear if they'll drop much this year.

Today, the mortgage interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is 7.43%, according to Curinos. On a 15-year fixed mortgage, the average rate is 6.61%, and the average rate on a 30-year jumbo mortgage is 7.

"While I'd love to say rates will drop below 6% in 2025, I think it's a moderate probability and not a certainty," says Steven Parangi, a licensed mortgage loan originator and owner of Alpine Mortgage Services. His view aligns with the Mortgage Bankers Association's prediction that rates will stay between 6% and 7% throughout the year.

The Federal Reserve has been cutting its benchmark rate in response to falling inflation, but stubbornly high prices for housing, energy, and food remain problematic. As a result, the Fed has scaled back its expectations on rate cuts for this year.

These are today's mortgage and refinance rates. Mortgage rates have gone up thanks to strong economic data. Where they go next depends on inflation.